Mesoscale Discussion 1654
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

   Areas affected...southwest and western VA...southeast WV...northeast
   TN...northwest NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051711Z - 051915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 45-60 mph are possible and these gusts will
   likely be capable of localized pockets of wind damage.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows thunderstorms
   developing over the past hour near the ridge tops of the
   Appalachians.  Surface conditions show temperatures warming through
   the upper 80s in the low elevations with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
   Continued heating will further steepen low-level lapse rates as
   temperatures warm into the 90s.  

   NAM forecast soundings indicate 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is present
   over southwest and western VA and surrounding states.  This buoyancy
   magnitude appears to be adequately depicted based on midday surface
   observations compared to the RAP-based SPC Objective Analysis
   (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).  With PW 1.75 to 2 inches, ample
   water-loading potential is evident.  The steepening of 0-3 km lapse
   rates in excess of 8 deg C/km will favor strong gust potential.  A
   weak tropospheric wind profile will favor slow-moving, pulse-like
   storms.  Isolated to widely scattered strong gusts 45-55 mph are
   probable with the stronger cores (locally up to around 60 mph) with
   pockets of wind damage the likely result.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 08/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   36938205 37788098 39397883 39407824 39127786 38637788
               37007916 35788167 35838209 36188227 36938205