ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280012 
SPC MCD 280012 
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Areas affected...southeast Missouri into northern Arkansas and far
western Tennessee and Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 280012Z - 280245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may persist for a few hours, with locally strong to
severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...Areas of vigorous convection have developed along a
weak surface trough, and along the southern periphery of the
stronger midlevel flow aloft. Surface analysis shows mid to upper
70s F dewpoints and heating have contributed to MLCAPE in excess of
3000 J/kg, with the most robust convection now over southeast MO.

Given this high-PWAT and uncapped air mass, storms may persist for a
few hours as they move slowly southeastward. Winds above the surface
are forecast to increase steadily as well, aiding storm-relative
inflow. Given only minor large-scale support and loss of heating,
the severe risk is expected to remain localized, but trends will
continue to be monitored for any further upscale growth along the
boundary.

..Jewell/Hart.. 07/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36199301 36439203 36709120 36949070 37189040 37128971
            36818899 36258885 35708955 35379071 35449178 35499267
            35789311 36199301 

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