ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250243 
SPC MCD 250243 
KSZ000-COZ000-250445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250243Z - 250445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts will be possible as a line of
storms moves from eastern Colorado into parts of western Kansas
tonight. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is tracking eastward at around 30 kt
across parts of eastern CO toward western KS, with recent
intensification/organization evident. The GLD VWP shows 30-35 kt of
0-6 km bulk shear oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge gust
front. This deep-shear orientation, combined with moist/deep
easterly inflow (lower/middle 60s dewpoints) is supporting
deep/persistent updrafts which are keeping pace with the outflow
boundary. The primary concern continues to be severe gusts up to 70
mph, though a brief mesovortex tornado cannot be entirely ruled out
given the shear/cold pool balance and expanding low-level hodographs
within the inflow area of the MCS. 

While increasing nocturnal boundary-layer stability casts
uncertainty on the surface-based severe threat over western KS,
strong to severe gusts appear possible owing to the
already-established cold pool.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37530166 37530200 38030276 38360289 38710280 39160232
            39210198 39230164 39230118 39000076 38830064 38360056
            37880063 37610108 37530166 

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