ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250014 
SPC MCD 250014 
NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-250145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...northern New Jersey and southeast New York into
southwest New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250014Z - 250145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of fast-moving thunderstorms may produce gusty
winds for a few more hours from southeast New York into southern New
England, but additional watches are unlikely for this round of
activity.

DISCUSSION...Two separate areas of storms currently exist over the
area. One extending from far northeast PA into southeast NY, and a
smaller cluster from western MA into far southern VT. These are
moving east at around 35 kt, and similar gusts up to 40 kt have been
noted recently, and this should be a reasonable expectation for
further gusts in the near term. Loss of heating, MLCAPE of only
750-1000 J/kg,  and generally weaker flow as compared to points
northwest suggest storms are unlikely to gain strength. However,
isolated strong gusts will remain likely.

..Jewell/Hart.. 07/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   40967558 41157487 41597441 42017429 42377417 42857364
            43127298 43237225 43087188 42567204 41837279 41537331
            41117394 40877429 40857521 40967558 

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