Mesoscale Discussion 1580
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0714 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

   Areas affected...northern New Jersey and southeast New York into
   southwest New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 250014Z - 250145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Clusters of fast-moving thunderstorms may produce gusty
   winds for a few more hours from southeast New York into southern New
   England, but additional watches are unlikely for this round of
   activity.

   DISCUSSION...Two separate areas of storms currently exist over the
   area. One extending from far northeast PA into southeast NY, and a
   smaller cluster from western MA into far southern VT. These are
   moving east at around 35 kt, and similar gusts up to 40 kt have been
   noted recently, and this should be a reasonable expectation for
   further gusts in the near term. Loss of heating, MLCAPE of only
   750-1000 J/kg,  and generally weaker flow as compared to points
   northwest suggest storms are unlikely to gain strength. However,
   isolated strong gusts will remain likely.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/25/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   40967558 41157487 41597441 42017429 42377417 42857364
               43127298 43237225 43087188 42567204 41837279 41537331
               41117394 40877429 40857521 40967558