Mesoscale Discussion 1556
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern IL...extreme
   southeastern WI...southwestern Lower MI...and northern IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230606Z - 230830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for
   severe hail early this morning. Watch issuance is unlikely at this
   time.

   DISCUSSION...A band of elevated convection has recently developed
   over southern Lake Michigan and vicinity. Based on recent VWP
   estimates from KLOT, this activity is being aided by a modest, 25-30
   kt west-southwesterly low-level jet. Latest MRMS MESH suggests a
   couple of the strongest cores may have marginally severe hail.
   Current expectations are for this band to shift into parts of
   southwestern Lower MI and northern IN over the next few hours.
   Around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and modest (20-30 kt) deep-layer
   shear should prove adequate for a continued isolated threat for
   severe hail. Various RAP forecast soundings and latest mesoanalysis
   indicate substantial MLCIN is present early this morning where
   thunderstorms are ongoing. The potential for strong/damaging winds
   should remain low given the strength of the near-surface stable
   layer. With expectations that the hail threat should remain rather
   isolated/marginal, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

   LAT...LON   42408838 42628786 42528719 42048486 41268487 41218561
               41588748 42088839 42408838