Mesoscale Discussion 1545
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0822 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

   Areas affected...south central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483...

   Valid 220122Z - 220245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some further organization of an evolving cluster or line
   of thunderstorms appears possible near and west through north of the
   Kearney and Grand Island areas, accompanied by the potential for
   strong surface gusts into the 10-11 PM CDT time frame.

   DISCUSSION...Colder cloud tops and frequent lightning flash rates
   have largely been maintained the past couple of hours in strongest
   convection, which has been increasing in a narrow corridor between
   two apparent weak mid-level cyclonic vorticity centers within the
   10-20 kt west-northwesterly mean ambient flow.  Objective analysis
   indicates considerable inhibition remains for moist boundary-layer
   parcels along the remnant zone of stronger differential surface
   heating.  However, VWP data from Grand Island indicates that
   southerly low-level flow has begun to strengthen (to around 30 kts)
   above the decoupling boundary-layer. 

   At least a period with some further organization of convection
   accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts still
   seems probable near and west through north of Kearney and Grand
   Island into the 03-04Z time frame, before activity begins to wane.

   ..Kerr.. 07/22/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41619891 41149778 40579830 40499916 40390077 40890038
               41249991 41619891