ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 210604 
SPC MCD 210604 
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-210800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast KY...Middle/Eastern
TN...Far Western VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 210604Z - 210800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from
south-central/southeast KY into middle/eastern TN and far western VA
over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar reflectivity shows a cluster of
thunderstorms across south-central/southeast KY. These thunderstorms
are ongoing in a region of very moist low levels (i.e., surface
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) and strong buoyancy, with
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE from 2500-3500 J/kg. Vertical shear
is weak, lead to limited overall storm organization modest and slow
storm motion. Even so, recent radar imagery has shown a bit more
southeastward motion with the cluster, particularly the westernmost
cells within the cluster over south-central KY. The motion of these
cells may be influenced by both the weak upper trough moving into
the region and the approaching cold front.

The moist and buoyancy air mass over the region should continue to
support strong updrafts for the next few hours, with storms likely
moving into more of middle/eastern TN and far western VA. Water
loading is possible within these strong updrafts, with the potential
for a few damaging downbursts as a result. Limited severe coverage
should preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37738601 37568329 36888233 36018277 35548441 35918651
            36968703 37738601 

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