Mesoscale Discussion 1518
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0114 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022

   Areas affected...east-central and southeastern Alabama...northern
   portions of the Florida Panhandle...and parts of central and
   southern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191814Z - 192015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue
   developing across parts of the Southeast, with locally gusty winds
   -- capable of producing tree/branch damage -- possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar and visible satellite loops show storms
   increasing in coverage across portions of Alabama and Georgia, and
   vicinity, to the south and southeast of a short-wave trough shifting
   southeastward across the southern Appalachians.  The storms are
   evolving within a very moist (mid 70s dewpoints) airmass, where
   insolation has helped to push mixed-layer CAPE values into the 2000
   to 3000 J/kg range.

   As storms continue to evolve, some organization is being observed --
   aided by moderate/unidirectional westerly flow indicated across the
   region on the southern periphery of the upper trough.  As outflow
   boundaries merge favoring new/possibly vigorous updraft growth
   locally, gusty winds -- capable of minor damage -- may occur
   locally.  However, given expectations that such stronger gusts will
   remain sparse/sporadic, and largely below official severe levels, WW
   issuance is not likely to be required.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 07/19/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   33428480 32898369 32538128 31038189 30448442 30808709
               31098749 31858703 32538663 33208663 33718604 33428480