ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 190419 
SPC MCD 190419 
MNZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-190615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Areas affected...northern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...

Valid 190419Z - 190615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms producing damaging wind and hail persist
across northwest North Dakota, and trends are being monitored for
increasing storm coverage into northeast North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...A complex area of storms is evolving across northwest
ND and far southeast SK, with new storms now forming near the MT/ND
border behind the leading activity. The air mass remains moist and
unstable, with steep lapse rates and deep-layer shear over 50 kt.
Over the next 1-2 hours, storms near the ND/SK border are expected
to merge, and could take on a more eastward motion. In addition,
cooling aloft persists with the shortwave trough, as evidenced by
the new storms to the southwest near the MT border.

The area east of WW 475 could eventually need a watch should the
storms along the international border move in a more easterly
direction.

..Jewell.. 07/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   49000411 49000275 48999996 49009950 49009613 48569629
            48249651 47949693 47630227 47580364 47990403 49000411 

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