Mesoscale Discussion 1492
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into northern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161736Z - 162030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and
   damaging winds should spread slowly eastward this afternoon. Watch
   issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...There are rather prevalent low/mid-level clouds
   associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over parts of
   western/northern VA into western MD. To the east of these clouds,
   filtered diurnal heating should continue this afternoon along/south
   of a weak boundary that extends across southern portions of the
   Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures climb further into the 80s and
   90s across the warm sector, weak to moderate instability will aid
   thunderstorm development. This process has already begun across
   parts of south-central VA into northern/central NC. Low/mid-level
   flow should remain fairly modest across these regions, but some
   enhancement to the mid-level westerlies (around 20-30 kt) associated
   with the weak shortwave trough could foster convective organization
   this afternoon. A mix of pulse thunderstorms and loosely organized
   multicells should spread slowly eastward over the next few hours.
   Isolated gusty to perhaps damaging downdraft winds should be the
   main threat as low-level lapse rates become steepened. Occasional
   marginally severe hail may also occur, as mid-level temperatures are
   seasonably cool. Current expectations are for the overall severe
   threat to remain rather isolated/marginal through the rest of the
   afternoon, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 07/16/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   39647710 39657641 39607586 39197541 38707560 37697621
               37017671 36197743 35817813 35767862 35957935 36177997
               36677979 37157932 37687859 38807763 39647710