Mesoscale Discussion 1481
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of north FL and southern GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141845Z - 142115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur as
   thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed
   along/south of a front across parts of north FL and southern GA.
   Weak low-level flow strengthens very modestly at mid/upper levels
   based on recent VWPs from KTLH/KVAX, with a general eastward
   component to ongoing activity. A moderately unstable and moist
   low-level airmass, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, is present across
   the warm sector. Low-level lapse rates are becoming modestly
   steepened as strong diurnal heating continues, and occasional strong
   to damaging winds will be possible with any convective downdrafts.
   Regardless, weak effective bulk shear should limit overall
   convective intensity and organization through the rest of the
   afternoon, with pulse to loosely organized multicell thunderstorms
   possible. Therefore, watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30548474 30728470 31078427 31298366 31348331 31418306
               31818275 32148219 32108169 31998125 31748104 31518112
               31228124 30838140 30468133 30168149 30028175 30068397
               30158424 30348459 30548474