Mesoscale Discussion 1429
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

   Areas affected...Central/north TX into extreme southwest
   AR/northwest LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092057Z - 092300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds are
   possible late this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have developed this
   afternoon across parts of central and north TX, generally in the
   vicinity of diffuse and weak frontal zone. Deep-layer flow/shear is
   weak, but with temperatures rising into the 102-107 F range and
   generally large DCAPE across the region, isolated downbursts will be
   possible as pulse storms intensify and then collapse. Some weak
   clustering is also possible as outflows consolidate, though
   convection is generally expected to remain disorganized. The
   isolated damaging wind threat will be diurnal in nature and tend to
   diminish this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 07/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33249766 33519537 33619419 33679357 33249327 32469306
               32129572 31659720 31319854 31099988 31660057 32400041
               32719951 32909887 33249766