Mesoscale Discussion 1415
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

   Areas affected...northeast KS...northwest into northern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 080434Z - 080630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Several strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during
   the overnight.  Hail/wind are the threats with these storms.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of thunderstorm clusters
   developing over the lower MO Valley.  A residual composite boundary
   is draped farther south over east-central KS into west-central MO as
   evident by streamline analysis.  The airmass over the lower MO
   Valley is characterized as very moist (17 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean
   mixing ratio) according to the 00 UTC Topeka, KS raob. 
   Non-negligible low-level warm air advection is implied by KEAX VAD
   data.  Given the moderate buoyancy and modest low- to mid-level
   flow, some potential for organized severe thunderstorms is becoming
   increasingly apparent.  Based on the Topeka raob, it seems the upper
   bound of hail potential will likely remain in the marginally severe
   category (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) or less.  Isolated severe
   gusts will be possible with the more water-loaded cores as storms
   congeal and intermittently surge to the east-southeast.  It is
   uncertain at this time whether the coverage of severe will warrant a
   severe thunderstorm watch.  Convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 07/08/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39779702 40329549 40099324 39739269 39429275 39109301
               39129681 39419717 39779702