Mesoscale Discussion 1361
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

   Areas affected...portions of east-central Illinois into west-central
   Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042240Z - 050015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe gusts may accompany ongoing
   storms in east-central Illinois over the next couple of hours if the
   storms can sustain themselves. Conditions are being monitored for
   the need of a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch if it becomes
   apparent that storms will last with any vigor for at least a few
   more hours.

   DISCUSSION...A multicellular complex of storms (with some cells
   exhibiting transient, outflow-dominant supercell characteristics)
   have produced strong to marginally severe wind gusts over the past
   couple of hours. MRMS mosaic radar data shows 30-50 dBZ echo top
   trends remaining fairly constant over the past couple of hours, with
   some slight weakening in the past 10-20 minutes. While deep-layer
   ascent along the IL/IN border is weak, strong surface heating ahead
   of the storms has promoted surface temperatures to rise to near 90
   F, resulting in a well-mixed boundary layer comprising 8 C/km 0-3 km
   lapse rates. However, a favorable parameter space of overlapping
   1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of effective bulk shear exist only a few
   counties ahead of the storms, raising questions regarding how long
   the storms (and severe potential) will last. Conditions are being
   monitored for the need of a potential watch should the storms take
   advantage of the steeper low-level lapse rates over the more limited
   CAPE/shear parameter space to support a sustained cold pool and
   associated damaging gust threat.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39678831 39958853 40158855 40448856 40678847 40788830
               40788792 40688762 40468725 40228680 39918659 39608669
               39468692 39348725 39428770 39678831