Mesoscale Discussion 1189
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

   Areas affected...western portions of the carolinas into western and
   central Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161753Z - 162000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development along the crest of the
   southern Appalachians should continue this afternoon. Pulse type
   storms may eventually result in some clustering with a risk for
   damaging wind gusts. A watch is possible though uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Along the eastern periphery of the TN valley/Mid South
   ridge of high pressure, subtle height falls/cooling aloft were
   supporting the development of scattered thunderstorms  along the
   crest of the southern Appalachians. Triggered primarily by diurnally
   driven terrain circulations, additional storm development appears
   likely through the afternoon as outflow from ongoing storms
   interacts with the hot and unstable airmass (3000-3500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE). Some risk for isolated damaging winds may develop with
   better organized pulse like storms as downdrafts mature. Shear
   profiles are modest (EBWD less than 20 kt), but some enhancement of
   the mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge and
   consolidation of outflow from ongoing storms may support additional
   clustering into a loosely organized MCS later this afternoon. Should
   this occur, a locally greater risk for damaging winds may develop
   given favorably large buoyancy and potential for water loaded
   downdrafts. While it currently appears a weather watch is not
   needed, convective trends will be monitored for any increase in
   organization/clustering this afternoon.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/16/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   35637946 35208001 34748096 34498164 34448236 34498282
               34688327 35348350 35648305 36058227 36258195 37568034
               38257962 38337909 38317863 37907854 37457861 36997879
               36237906 35637946