Mesoscale Discussion 1163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

   Areas affected...Southeast OH...Southwest PA...Northern WV...Far
   western MD...Far northwest VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141244Z - 141445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms capable of isolated hail and strong wind
   gusts are possible this morning.

   DISCUSSION...A strong elevated thunderstorm has recently developed
   across southeast OH, with convection also increasing into parts of
   northern WV. These storms are developing along an instability
   gradient that is expected to move slowly eastward with time, as
   continued low-level moisture advection occurs underneath the leading
   edge of a steep midlevel lapse rate plume. Moderate MUCAPE and
   favorable deep-layer shear will support an isolated hail risk with
   the strongest storms, and any eventual storm clustering could result
   in isolated strong wind gusts. At this time, the short-term severe
   threat appears too limited for watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   40028124 40298036 40378009 39567928 38887902 38477901
               38187928 38258015 38618057 39138105 39558128 40028124