Mesoscale Discussion 1133
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0619 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

   Areas affected...southeastern Colorado and western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 122319Z - 130145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
   over southeastern Colorado.  Convective trends will be monitored for
   the possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch over portions of
   southeastern Colorado and western Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Aided by large-scale ascent moving across the region,
   thunderstorms have increased in coverage and intensity over portions
   of the southeastern Colorado plains.  As these storms continue to
   move northeastward, they will encounter a more moist and unstable
   environment.  Despite marginal deep-layer shear (30-35 knots) across
   the area, it should be sufficient to sustain at least some storm
   organization into the evening hours.  Initial updraft cores may be
   capable of producing severe hail, but the primary threat is expected
   to transition to severe wind this evening.  High-based storms will
   promote outflow mergers and upscale growth.  Additionally, the
   low-level jet is expected to increase this evening (by 03Z) into
   southwestern Kansas, which should promote maintenance and upscale
   growth of convective clusters capable of producing severe winds.

   ..Jirak/Thompson.. 06/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37080189 37330227 38110336 38640347 39200232 39630134
               39969979 39439889 38859870 38279895 37769964 36900113
               37080189