Mesoscale Discussion 0962
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

   Areas affected...Northwest MN into far eastern ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 292014Z - 292145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is possible this
   afternoon, with a threat of large hail and a couple of tornadoes.
   Watch issuance is likely by 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has recently been noted along a warm
   front in northwest MN, and further south along a weak surface trough
   toward west-central MN and far southeast ND. Despite rather
   extensive cloud cover, modest heating and steep midlevel lapse rates
   are supporting moderate instability near/south of the warm front,
   with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalyses.
   Weakening MLCINH and modest ascent within a weak warm-advection
   regime will support scattered thunderstorm development this
   afternoon. 

   Modest midlevel flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt
   across the region, sufficient for some storm organization, with
   potential for a few stronger multicells or marginal supercells.
   Low-level flow/shear is not particularly strong, but will be locally
   maximized near the warm front. If any supercells can be sustained
   near the warm frontal zone across northwest MN, a tornado or two
   will be possible, in addition to large hail. Further south along the
   weak surface trough, the tornado threat will probably be somewhat
   less, but a somewhat greater hail threat may be present due to
   stronger instability. 

   Watch issuance may be needed by 21Z, depending on observational
   trends regarding a sufficient coverage and magnitude of the severe
   threat.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/29/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46289555 46269561 46059662 46109711 47069708 48619675
               48879590 48379531 46289555