Mesoscale Discussion 0913
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1051 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

   Areas affected...portions of the FL Panhandle into southeast AL and
   southwest GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251551Z - 251715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts will be possible into the afternoon
   hours with stronger storms. The overall threat is expected to remain
   limited, precluding the need for a watch at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms across the central FL
   Panhandle has shown at least brief organization recently. This
   activity has intensified within a plume of stronger destabilization
   where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s and low 80s amid
   low 70s surface dewpoints. While some locally strong gusts may occur
   into the afternoon across parts of the FL Panhandle into southeast
   AL and southwest GA, overall severe potential is expected to remain
   limited/brief. Effective shear magnitudes will remain weak over the
   region while low and midlevel lapse rates are poor. This will limit
   the longevity of any stronger/organized convection. Nevertheless, a
   very moist and moderately unstable airmass could still support a few
   strong gusts. At this time, a severe thunderstorm watch is not
   expected.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/25/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   32048539 32178494 32168451 32048426 31728418 31328421
               30508446 30028484 29858513 29888531 30278544 30578557
               30848595 31158593 31608581 32048539