Mesoscale Discussion 0880
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of extreme northern South Carolina into
   southern and central North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231720Z - 231915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A damaging gust may occur with an approaching squall line.
   The severe threat is expected to be isolated enough to preclude a WW
   issuance at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A squall line with a history of strong wind gusts
   continues in advance of a warm-core low across SC and is poised to
   move into NC through mid afternoon. Ahead of the squall line,
   temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s F into central NC,
   contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings suggest
   the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer up to 850 mb wherever
   surface temperatures can reach 85 F. Given continued heating into
   NC, a couple strong to potentially damaging gusts will be possible
   with this squall line. However, severe gusts are expected to be very
   sparse and a WW issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34208042 34808068 35298075 35888044 35908005 35917933
               35917895 35807846 35647797 35207795 34597842 34307901
               34157971 34208042