Mesoscale Discussion 0860
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

   Areas affected...western New York...far northern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 212151Z - 212345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may yet develop through
   early evening, with marginal hail or wind gusts possible.

   DISCUSSION...An effective front comprised of outflow and lake breeze
   currently extends from far western NY into far northern NY, with a
   building cumulus field across southwest NY. Storms are ongoing just
   south of Lake Erie, and should move generally northeastward along
   the front. Given substantial instability in place south of the NY
   portion of the front, additional storms are expected. Given CAPE
   profiles will steep lapse rates and at least marginal deep-layer
   shear, a few severe cells may occur with wind and hail threat.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/21/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41997967 42437886 42947816 43087749 43197670 43227538
               42937515 42337536 41977580 41837707 41647885 41707942
               41797973 41997967