Mesoscale Discussion 0803
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

   Areas affected...West-central and Northern Kansas...Southern
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 172231Z - 180100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
   west-central and northern Kansas into southern Nebraska. Wind damage
   and isolated large hail are expected to be the primary threats. A
   severe thunderstorm watch appears likely across parts of the central
   Plains by early evening.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Goodland, Kansas
   at 2210Z has a northeast-to-southwest line of semi-discrete
   thunderstorms located south-southeast of North Platte, near the
   Nebraska-Kansas state line. These storms are developing along the
   western edge of a moist and unstable airmass, where the RAP has
   MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Hastings WSR-88D VWP
   currently has 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some
   veering winds with height. This wind profile along with low to
   mid-level lapse rates in the 8.0 to 9.0 C/km range, will be
   favorable for a severe threat over the next few hours. The HRRR
   currently is forecasting convective coverage to expand over the next
   hour as large-scale ascent increases due to a subtle shortwave
   trough moving in from the west.  The threat is expected to develop
   eastward across parts of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska,
   where weather watch issuance may be needed over the next 1 to 2
   hours.

   ..Broyles/Smith.. 05/17/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40709906 40929834 40789784 40359749 39939752 39039833
               38389935 38410004 38740046 39290043 39900001 40369953
               40709906