Mesoscale Discussion 0754
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0708 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

   Areas affected...the Concho Valley to the Red River

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 140008Z - 140145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Numerous storms have developed along a dryline from the
   Concho Valley to the Red River. These storms are expected to persist
   for another hour or two before weakening after sunset.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have developed in a hot and deeply mixed
   environment across the Concho Valley and also near the Red River
   where better low-level moisture is present. Flow is quite weak in
   the lowest 6 km per area VWP, but there is stronger flow around 8km
   (40-45 knots) which has helped aid in storm organization and some
   supercell structures. Expect a large hail and damaging wind threat
   to persist for another hour or two before weakening as the boundary
   layer cools and storms become more outflow dominant. This threat is
   expected to be confined to a narrow corridor, and should not last
   long enough to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   34279854 34459818 34049708 32939696 31949713 31029755
               30809852 30819936 30930047 31180085 31490107 31780098
               32240030 32939953 33529902 34279854