Mesoscale Discussion 0691
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0713 PM CDT Sun May 08 2022

   Areas affected...Southeast ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090013Z - 090145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A supercell or two may affect parts of southeast North
   Dakota this evening, with a threat of hail and perhaps a brief
   tornado. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm over Stutsman County, ND has recently
   shown signs of intensification and improved organization. This cell
   is moving into an environment of relatively greater low-level
   moisture and MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Rather strong
   midlevel flow is supporting effective shear of 40-50 kt, sufficient
   for potential supercell development. Cool temperatures aloft (around
   -20 C at 500 mb) will support an isolated hail threat. While
   low-level flow/shear is weak, enhanced low-level vorticity near a
   weak downstream convergence zone may support a brief tornado threat
   if supercell development is sustained into this region. 

   The threat for surface-based supercells should diminish with time
   later this evening, as nocturnal cooling results in increasing
   MLCINH. Due to the limited spatial extent and duration of this
   threat, watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47009902 47299760 46839736 46449740 46239758 46359925
               46789934 47009902