Mesoscale Discussion 0660
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of northeast TX...southeast OK...and far
   southwest AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051818Z - 051945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe storms will be
   possible over the next couple hours, though watch issuance is not
   expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convection, the boundary-layer
   has sufficiently recovered across northeast TX into southeast OK --
   aided by strengthening large-scale ascent/cooling aloft and lower
   60s surface dewpoints. VWP data from SRX shows 55-65 kt 0-6 km bulk
   shear, with modest veering in the 0-3-km layer and a long/straight
   mid/upper-level hodograph. These factors could support the risk risk
   of isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts with northeastward
   tracking supercell clusters during the next couple hours. While the
   generally straight hodograph may favor splitting supercells and
   resultant cell interactions, any longer-lived semi-discrete
   right-moving supercells that can root in the boundary layer could
   pose a brief tornado risk owing to 200-250 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH (per SRX
   VWP data). The anticipated short spatial/temporal nature of the
   threat will likely preclude watch issuance, though trends will be
   monitored.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34029659 34519638 34939610 35369567 35499531 35449466
               35149425 34599421 34259434 33769464 33429506 33389562
               33509636 34029659