Mesoscale Discussion 0565
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0803 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

   Areas affected...Far southern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260103Z - 260300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of locally damaging wind gusts and sporadic large
   hail will spread southward across far southern Texas this evening.
   Watch issuance will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A large convective cluster with occasional embedded
   supercell structures will continue moving southward across far
   southern Texas this evening. Ahead of the convective outflow, lower
   70s dewpoints and modest midlevel lapse rates are contributing to a
   strongly unstable airmass. Despite weak flow in the 2-5 km layer,
   easterly low-level flow beneath 20-30 knots of midlevel westerly
   flow is supporting 30-45 knots 0-6 km bulk shear per the latest CRP
   VWP data. This enhanced deep-layer shear combined with the strong
   instability will support loosely organized updrafts embedded in the
   larger convective cluster. Locally damaging wind gusts with
   continued upscale growth may occur, and sporadic large hail will
   also remain possible. Watch issuance will not be needed owing to the
   localized nature of the threat.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/26/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26039839 26329907 26639939 27159953 27289882 27209803
               27029773 26519752 25849757 26039839