Mesoscale Discussion 0507
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0725 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170025Z - 170230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail will be possible with any
   longer-lived updrafts across portions of south-central Texas this
   evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loops have shown a few
   attempts at convective initiation along a diffuse stationary
   boundary draped across parts of south-central Texas. The 00Z DRT
   sounding shows dry conditions in the low/mid-levels, which casts
   uncertainty on both convective initiation and sustenance. Surface
   observations south of the boundary show temperatures in the middle
   80s/lower 90s, with dewpoints generally in the middle/upper 60s
   beneath a weak capping inversion. These boundary-layer conditions,
   combined with modestly steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing
   to moderate instability (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg). While low-level
   flow and convergence remain quite weak, any updrafts that can
   develop and persist will be capable of isolated large hail
   development owing to zonally elongated mid/upper-level hodographs
   and generally favorable buoyancy.

   ..Weinman/Grams.. 04/17/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30490013 30200085 29910119 29500131 28840071 28900017
               29099899 29539760 30199711 30899741 30829856 30490013