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Mesoscale Discussion 418 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Areas affected...Southern South Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 98...99...
Valid 052230Z - 060000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98, 99 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornadic supercells ahead of the squall line will continue
to pose a threat for significant tornadoes over the next 1-2 hours
across southern South Carolina.
DISCUSSION...Supercells ahead of an approaching squall line have
maintained intensity and organization over the past hour. The
effects of downstream diabatic cooling continue to be overcome by
strong kinematics ahead of the parent cyclone to the
north/northwest. Favorable low-level moisture (60+ F dewpoints)
outlining the effective warm sector is matching the forward speed of
these supercells, maintaining an environment with around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (based on regional VWPs). This
will support a continued tornado threat for the next 1-2 hours,
possibly lasting into the mid to late evening hours for portions of
coastal SC. Given the kinematic environment and VROT values noted
with recent circulations, a couple of significant tornadoes are
possible.
..Moore.. 04/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 32088120 32768112 33238105 33678053 33798002 33707953
33387916 33177913 32767964 32438036 32058073 31928084
32088120
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