Mesoscale Discussion 0406
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/central GA and the FL
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 051515Z - 051715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for several tornadoes and numerous damaging winds
   will spread eastward this afternoon. Some of the tornadoes could be
   strong. Tornado Watch issuance will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A small bowing complex with a history of producing
   damaging winds and embedded tornadoes is moving eastward across
   southern AL this morning. A couple of low-topped supercells are also
   present ahead of the line. Recent visible satellite trends show a
   fair amount of mid and high-level cloudiness downstream of this
   activity across much of GA and parts of the FL Panhandle. Even so,
   the airmass across this region is expected to destabilize enough to
   support surface-based storms this afternoon. 15Z surface
   observations show temperatures rising into the upper 60s and 70s,
   with dewpoints gradually increasing into the 60s. MLCAPE should
   increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range as this occurs, even though
   mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly modest.

   A 40-50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will spread eastward
   over GA this afternoon. A strongly veering and strengthening wind
   profile with height through mid levels will likely support updraft
   rotation both within the line and with any cells that can remain
   discrete ahead of it. Given the enhanced low-level shear, a threat
   for tornadoes will likely exist, especially with any supercells that
   can remain at least semi-discrete. A strong tornado will remain a
   possibility with favorably enhanced low-level hodographs. The bowing
   line of convection should also remain capable of producing numerous
   damaging winds. Based on recent radar trends, Tornado Watch issuance
   across parts of southern/central GA and vicinity appears
   increasingly likely by 16-17Z (12-1 PM EDT).

   ..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30728485 31338497 31728499 32288485 32868508 33218450
               33448264 32848234 32338228 31958227 31268253 30658300
               30468364 30488495 30728485