Mesoscale Discussion 0392
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

   Areas affected...portions of the southern Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041654Z - 041930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
   developing northward along a diffuse baroclinic zone. Isolated large
   hail and a couple of damaging gusts are the main threats. A WW
   issuance is unlikely given the isolated threat for severe.

   DISCUSSION...Transient multicellular thunderstorm clusters have
   developed across the far southern Florida Peninsula along the
   intersection of sea-breeze boundaries, near a baroclinic zone. KAMX
   radar shows convective outflow boundaries propagating northward
   towards the baroclinic zone, with lower 80s F surface temperatures
   and 70+ F surface dewpoints. As such, new convective cells are
   expected to pulse along the leading edge of the convective cold
   pools through the afternoon. The 12Z MFL observed sounding showed
   the presence of 8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, with 0-3 km lapse
   rates over 7 C/km when modifying the sounding to represent recent
   METAR surface observations. Isolated severe hail may occur with the
   more robust, sustained updrafts given the presence of the steep
   mid-level lapse rates. Low-level lapse rates should also continue to
   steepen through the afternoon and support the potential for a couple
   of strong gusts as well. Given the sparse nature of the severe
   threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   25448107 26538211 27438257 27858236 27958170 27818093
               27568041 26918008 26318005 25808015 25478025 25448107