Mesoscale Discussion 0384
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 PM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011848Z - 012115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms appear possible across Atlantic
   coastal hours, mostly north of Miami, near the Palm Beach area, by
   4-5 PM EDT.  These may pose a risk for producing localized,
   potentially damaging, surface gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Outflow from persistent convection near a weak surface
   cold front has advanced south of the Vero Beach and Avon Park
   vicinities.  To the south of this boundary, the seasonably moist
   boundary layer has become increasingly well mixed with continuing
   insolation, and temperatures warming into the upper 80s have
   contributed to moderately large CAPE.

   Near surface flow is generally light and southwesterly to westerly,
   with low-level confluence and convergence becoming focused inland of
   far southeastern coastal areas into the Palm Beach vicinity, where
   mixed-layer CAPE may be maximized around 2000 J/kg.  This appears to
   be just ahead of a subtle/low amplitude perturbation (perhaps
   convectively generated), which has migrated inland to the north of
   Fort Myers and may reach Atlantic coastal areas near/north of Palm
   Beach by 20-21Z.  Associated forcing for ascent may contribute to
   enhancement of scattered thunderstorm development now beginning to
   initiate in the unstable environment.

   Any substantive upscale convective growth may take place largely
   offshore.  However, at least isolated to widely scattered strong
   thunderstorm development appears possible near coastal areas, in the
   presence of modest deep-layer shear.  These may pose at least some
   risk for small hail.  And latent cooling due to melting and
   evaporation, coupled with heavy precipitation loading, may
   contribute to a strong downburst or two with locally strong surface
   gusts, before shifting offshore.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/01/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

   LAT...LON   27848043 27817943 26457992 26468044 27288067 27848043