Mesoscale Discussion 0377
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0111 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

   Areas affected...Parts  of central and eastern  North Carolina into
   southeastern Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...

   Valid 311811Z - 312015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.

   SUMMARY...Organizing thunderstorm development possible through late
   afternoon, perhaps including a supercell or small evolving cluster
   with the potential to produce a couple of tornadoes and/or damaging
   wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...An area of persistent stronger convective development,
   currently near Southern Pines NC, may be supported by forcing
   associated with a mid-level speed maximum nosing across and
   northeast of the Piedmont.  Breaks/thin spots in cloud cover across
   the Piedmont into coastal plain continue to allow for weak
   destabilization of a moistening boundary, and if the mid-level
   forcing for ascent is maintained, inhibition associated with warm
   layers aloft may weaken sufficiently to support substantive further
   intensification during the next few hours.  This still appears to
   generally coincide with the axis of 50-60 kt southerly 850 mb flow,
   and forecast soundings near the mid-level speed maximum still
   exhibit clockwise curved low-level hodographs becoming maximized. 
   It is possible that this may provide the primary focus for
   organizing thunderstorms development, possibly including a supercell
   or two with the potential to produce tornadoes.

   ..Kerr.. 03/31/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...CAE...

   LAT...LON   35497981 36667801 36127749 34687929 34428017 34568042
               35497981