Mesoscale Discussion 0247
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina and adjacent
   portions of northeastern South Carolina and the Virginia Tidewater

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121212Z - 121415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A developing line of showers and embedded thunderstorms
   appears likely to overspread the coastal plain and Outer Banks
   vicinity during the 8-11 AM EST time frame, accompanied by the risk
   for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...The primary surface low now appears east-northeast of
   Danville VA, but a trailing frontal wave appears the focus for an
   evolving narrow band of stronger convection and embedded
   thunderstorms.  This band is in the process of accelerating
   northeast of the South Carolina Piedmont, nearly coincident with an
   intensifying low-level jet streak.  Models suggest that the core of
   this jet will intensify in excess of 80 kt around the 850 mb level,
   while propagating across the eastern North Carolina coastal plain
   and Outer Banks vicinity during the 13-16Z time frame.  The boundary
   layer across this region has been gradually warming and moistening
   overnight, contributing to at least very weakly unstable
   near-surface lapse rates and mixed-layer CAPE.  The extent to which
   this may support substantive intensification of the approaching line
   of convection remains unclear.  However, the environment may be more
   conducive to the downward transfer of potentially damaging wind
   gusts; and low-level wind profiles characterized by extreme
   low-level shear, with weak to modest low-level hodograph curvature,
   might prove conducive to intensifying low-level mesocyclones with
   the potential to produce tornadoes.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34957901 35787808 36557656 36737619 35867550 35177578
               33997768 33957885 34957901