Mesoscale Discussion 0177
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0949 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

   Areas affected...portions of extreme southeast Oklahoma...central
   and northern Arkansas...extreme southern Missouri

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 231549Z - 232045Z

   SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain and sleet is ongoing across
   portions of Arkansas and is expected to continue into the afternoon,
   with up to 0.10 inch/hr freezing rain rates possible with the
   heavier precipitation bands.

   DISCUSSION...While a sub-freezing surface airmass continues to
   overspread much of the southern Plains into the Ozark Valley today,
   an approaching mid-level trough across the Southwest is supporting
   robust 850-700 mb warm-air/moisture advection across the Arklatex.
   This warmer, moister air atop the arctic surface airmass is
   promoting sufficient melting of frozen precipitation in the 925-700
   mb layer (per the 12Z LZK observed sounding and 14Z RAP forecast
   soundings valid for 16-21Z). KLZK and KSRX dual-polarimetric radar
   data and surface observations suggest that a mix of freezing rain
   and snow are already underway across western into central AR, which
   should continue into the afternoon hours based on 12Z HREF output
   and the last few runs of the HRRR.

   A relatively greater concentration of sleet is expected across
   northwest Arkansas, where 15Z mesoanalysis shows 925 mb cold air
   advection in place, which should usher in cold enough temperatures
   just above the surface to support more efficient refreezing of
   liquid precipitation. Areas across central AR to the MO border are
   better aligned with the 850-700 mb WAA axis, where relatively higher
   freezing rain rates are expected, with up to 0.10 inch/hr rates
   possible with the heavier precipitation bands, though some sleet is
   still possible.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35089044 34679161 34459237 34289328 34329371 34419419
               34469465 34609488 35529454 36299389 36559279 36669166
               36569097 36419054 36089022 35569013 35089044