Mesoscale Discussion 0173
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

   Areas affected...Central MS into West-Central/Far Northwestern AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222154Z - 230000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible
   from central MS into west-central/far northwestern AL this evening.
   Trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...Coverage and intensity of multicellular thunderstorms
   has recently increased across southwest MS, likely a result of
   persistent low-level confluence combined with diurnal
   destabilization. Expectation is for these storms to continue
   northeastward into an environment characterized by slightly less
   buoyancy but slightly more vertical shear. As a result, potential
   exists for a few of these updrafts to organize into supercells, with
   an attendant severe threat for damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado
   or two. The severe threat is currently expected to stay isolated,
   tempered by the limited buoyancy and lack of stronger large-scale
   forcing for ascent. Even so, trends will be monitored closely and a
   watch may be needed if storm coverage and intensity continue to
   increase.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 02/22/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33289036 34258928 34548842 34498792 34188773 33188788
               32018852 31608928 31629026 32099092 33289036