Mesoscale Discussion 0069
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022

   Areas affected...portions of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 151937Z - 160130Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour will be
   possible across parts of the Ozarks into this evening. Some mixed
   precipitation will be possible farther east before transitioning to
   all snow this evening. Periods of heavy snow may reduce visibility
   and result in quick accumulation.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional observations showed a large
   precipitation shield wrapping around a surface low across the lower
   Mississippi River Valley. Associated with a well-defined upper low
   over Texoma, large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level warm
   advection should continue to support widespread precipitation across
   parts of the Ozarks through the next several hours.

   Periodic heavy snow has already been observed across the
   northwestern portions of the precip band in southwestern MO and
   northwestern AR. Surface observations indicate low-level cold air
   advection is increasing as the low strengthens and moves off to the
   east. Regional model soundings show some potential for sleet and
   mixed precipitation types across portions of north-central AR and
   southern MO as low-level warm air is slowly eroded from the
   northwest. Aided by increased dynamic cooling from an observed
   deformation band moving in from the northeast, moderate to heavy
   snow should gradually expand in coverage to the east over the few
   hours. Occasional snow rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour, peaking
   between 21-01z, will be possible before weakening ascent and dry air
   entrainment lower snowfall rates. The greatest confidence in heavy
   snow will be along the north facing slopes of the higher terrain
   across north-central AR extending into southern MO. Some heavy snow
   may also develop later this evening across portions of northeastern
   AR and the MO Bootheel, but warmer surface temperatures and a slower
   transition to wintry precipitation will likely limit overall
   accumulations.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 01/15/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36739115 36569074 36469061 36299060 36149089 35949144
               35819196 35599251 35519294 35519322 35639339 35859352
               36279348 36599336 36779290 36849240 36799157 36739115