Mesoscale Discussion 2076
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

   Areas affected...extreme eastern Louisiana into far southern
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292049Z - 292215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A damaging gust or brief tornado is possible with one of
   the more organized, longer-lasting storms. A WW issuance is not
   expected given the brief, localized nature of the severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...KLIX radar shows that a couple of storms in
   Washington/St. Tammany Parish have exhibited transient supercell
   structures and very brief bouts of modest low-level rotation over
   the last hour. These storms are supported largely by strong surface
   heating, with temperatures and dewpoints around 80/70F,
   respectively. MLCAPE has increased to around 2000 J/kg in the
   presence of 40+ kt effective bulk shear. Nonetheless, mechanically
   driven deep-layer ascent remains negligible across the region, and
   the 2028Z KLIX VWP shows only modest veering/curvature in the 0-3 km
   layer, with SRH under 200 m2/s2 across the region. The
   kinematic/thermodynamic environment does support a very localized
   threat for a damaging gust or brief tornado. However, more
   widespread and robust storm organization is not expected, and a WW
   issuance appears unlikely.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/29/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30639020 31189006 31568978 31548892 31218879 30938899
               30588965 30639020