Mesoscale Discussion 1937
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

   Areas affected...parts of north Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 102306Z - 110100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging hail, strong gusts and perhaps
   a brief tornado are expected to affect parts of north Texas this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from central OK
   into northwest TX, with a dryline from near Wichita Falls extending
   southwestward toward San Angelo. While dewpoints are only in the
   55-60 F range, temperatures aloft are quite cold which is maximizing
   instability. A 21Z sounding from OUN showed 2000 J/kg MUCAPE,
   despite little heating today.

   Visible imagery shows towering CU near the cold front/dryline
   intersection approaching the Wichita Falls area. One or more
   supercells may eventually form out of this area, with storms
   forecast to progress east/southeastward this evening.

   Lengthening hodographs as well as steep lapse rates aloft with 500
   mb temperatures near -17 C suggest damaging hail will be possible as
   storms move east/southeast along and south of the Red River. A brief
   tornado may occur as well, as low-level shear remains favorable
   prior to the cold front passing. However, low-level winds are
   forecast to rapidly veer this evening.

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 11/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34289674 34109555 33929504 33529492 33029494 32659544
               32429606 32389696 32479793 32579891 32849899 33269877
               33689878 34259895 34499858 34429769 34289674