Mesoscale Discussion 1880
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of far west TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212024Z - 212300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of producing occasional gusty
   winds and hail should continue through the rest of the afternoon.
   Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed this afternoon over the
   Davis Mountains and vicinity in far west TX. This region remains
   displaced to the south of stronger mid-level flow across the
   northern/central CONUS. Still, there is modest veering/strengthening
   of the wind field with height through mid levels per recent VWPs
   from KMAF. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear should help foster
   occasional storm organization. The presence of steep mid-level lapse
   rates observed on the 12Z MAF sounding suggests some threat for
   isolated marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. Diurnal
   heating of the boundary layer has also steepened low-level lapse
   rates, and occasional strong to severe downdraft winds may also
   occur as the cores collapse. With a lack of stronger flow aloft,
   storm motions should remain rather slow, with the overall severe
   threat likely remaining quite isolated this afternoon. Therefore,
   watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Gleason/Bunting.. 10/21/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30520459 30910411 31050357 30590277 30060280 29600321
               29640398 29870444 30150464 30520459