Mesoscale Discussion 1821
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of western north Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 102046Z - 102245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development is
   possible across the Texas Big Country by 6-8 PM CDT, some of which
   will pose a risk for severe hail and wind, and perhaps a tornado or
   two.

   DISCUSSION...As larger-scale mid-level troughing continues east of
   the southern Rockies into the southern Great Plains late this
   afternoon through early evening, models suggest that mid-level
   forcing for ascent may gradually increase south of the Red River
   through much of western north Texas by 00-01Z.  Strongest lift is
   expected to develop along the leading edge of stronger lower/mid
   tropospheric cold advection.  It appears that this will surge
   southeast and east of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains, into the
   vicinity of the dryline over the Texas Big Country, before potential
   of substantive strengthening of convective development commences.

   The western edge of the deeper boundary-layer moisture currently
   appears just south and east of the Abilene vicinity into areas west
   of Wichita Falls, where mixed-layer CAPE is increasing in excess of
   1500 J/kg.  Deep-layer shear is strong and already supportive of
   organized convective development, including supercells, with
   considerable further strengthening (to around 70 kt) of
   southwesterly flow around 500 mb forecast by early evening. 
   Substantive further intensification of flow in the 850-700 mb layer,
   associated with southern Great Plains surface cyclogenesis, may not
   occur until later this evening.  However, particularly given
   thermodynamic profiles including steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse
   rates, the environment still probably will be conducive to
   convection capable of producing severe hail and wind, with perhaps
   some risk for a tornado or two.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33859921 33759772 31849871 31620028 32239984 33109975
               33859921