Mesoscale Discussion 1683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021
Areas affected...northeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021911Z - 022115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms in the Salina Kansas area may
persist for a few hours into northeast Kansas. Wind, hail, and
perhaps a tornado threat are all possible.
DISCUSSION...Storms on the southern fringe of a larger-scale
precipitation shield from NE into northern KS have increased in
intensity as a hotter air mass develops to the south. Surface
analysis shows temperatures into the 90s F across south-central KS,
which has eroded capping. Downstream of these cells, temperatures
are quite a bit cooler, only in the lower 80s around Topeka,
although a warming trend is expected. Cirrus is currently hampering
heating across northeast KS as well.
Given the robustness of the current cell, a severe hail or wind
threat may persist in a narrow zone across several counties over the
next few hours. In addition, shear profiles are favorable for
supercells, and 0-1 SRH will remain over 100 m2/s2 which could also
favor a tornado risk assuming cells remain discrete.
..Jewell/Grams.. 09/02/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39069798 39539626 39449589 39169571 38949577 38839609
38799716 38739789 38809799 38919802 39069798
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