Mesoscale Discussion 1460
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Wisconsin and western Upper
   Peninsula of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101702Z - 101830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...There is an isolated threat of large hail and damaging
   wind across northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of
   Michigan into the early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Slightly elevated convection has formed across northern
   Wisconsin in an area being influenced by ascent associated with the
   main upper-level trough. This convection has become more numerous in
   the past 30 minutes. Steep mid-level lapse rates were observed on
   the 12Z MPX RAOB and are contributing to MUCAPE in excess of
   2000-2500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Effective shear in this region
   is around 35 to 45 knots which has provided ample shear for storm
   organization. Therefore, expect a continued increase in storm
   coverage and intensity with the potential for some supercell
   structures. Initially, large hail may be the greater threat, but as
   inhibition weakens and storms congeal, the damaging wind threat may
   increase.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

   LAT...LON   46679175 46999121 47089065 47408866 47468791 47118792
               46308863 46068912 45709079 45969148 46159182 46679175