Mesoscale Discussion 1422
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0605 PM CDT Thu Aug 05 2021

   Areas affected...North-central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052305Z - 060000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A low-end risk for damaging wind gusts or hail is possible
   early this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across north-central Nebraska has
   shown occasional organization supportive of damaging wind gusts and
   or severe hail. Located at the nose of a plume of mid-level lapse
   rates near 8-9 C/km, these storms are ongoing in 1000-2000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis. Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kts will
   favor organized multicell and weak supercell structures. If
   convection is able to sustain itself, a brief risk for damaging wind
   gusts and severe hail may evolve. To the south and east, the near
   storm environment rapidly becomes hostile for deep convection, with
   warm mid-level temperatures and large scale subsidence. Storms will
   likely weaken as they track south and east over the next 1 to 2
   hours but, a brief window of severe risk may develop. Given the
   limited spatial and temporal risk, a weather watch is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/05/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43020054 42989926 42549865 42029837 41649858 41429901
               41389956 41620009 42380054 42820068 43020054