Mesoscale Discussion 0839
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0447 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

   Areas affected...parts of southern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022147Z - 022315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado remains possible with any of the stronger
   storms with more persistent low-level rotation. The tornado threat
   is expected to be too sparse and localized to warrant a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, exhibiting occasional transient
   supercell structure, have been showing signs of stronger, more
   persistent low-level rotation over the past hour or so, as shown by
   MRMS mosaic radar imagery. A tornado was reported with a transient
   supercell in Duplin County, and KLTX high-resolution radar data is
   also showing weak low-level mesocyclone development with storms
   entering Bladen and Columbus counties. While recent KMHX and KLTX
   VWPs suggest that low-level shear is weak overall, these
   semi-discrete storms are traversing a diffuse baroclinic zone, where
   locally enhanced effective SRH and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (with 150 J/kg
   0-3 km CAPE) is supporting updraft organization and occasional
   low-level rotation. As such, a brief tornado or two remains possible
   for a few more hours, before convective overturning or
   boundary-layer cooling serve to diminish any remaining severe
   threat. The very isolated, brief nature of the tornado threat
   precludes a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/02/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34357913 34737895 34927875 35167807 35257745 35187701
               34857689 34597712 34347759 34177801 34077852 34037900
               34357913