Mesoscale Discussion 0821
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0918 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

   Areas affected...southeast into east-central New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311418Z - 311515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms should persist for a few more hours.
   Isolated large hail will be possible, but the sporadic nature of the
   threat should preclude the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across southeast New
   Mexico this morning will periodic indications of large hail per
   MRMS. Origins of these thunderstorms appears to be weak
   southwesterly warm-air advection rooted around 700 mb with
   additional large-scale ascent downstream of an upper trough moving
   into central New Mexico. Forecast soundings have effective-layer
   shear on the order of 40-50 knots and modest lapse rates in the
   700-500 mb range (around 7.5 C/km), which despite being close to the
   base of the updrafts, should be sufficient to support isolated large
   hail with the strongest updrafts. 

   The overall thermodynamic environment is still recovering from
   widespread convection yesterday, with surface temperatures across
   east-central New Mexico still in the 50s F. Farther southwest, where
   cloud cover is absent, surface temperatures have warmed into the 70s
   F across south-central New Mexico, with surface dewpoint
   temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s, yielding most-unstable CAPE
   values around 1000-2000 J/kg. 

   Given an unstable source region and the approach of large-scale
   ascent, thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico should continue to
   percolate through the morning before weakening later this morning as
   they move east-northeast, farther away from the unstable source
   region and into an increasingly stable environment. 

   Later this morning into early afternoon, more robust convection is
   anticipated farther west, within more unstable environment.

   ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/31/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33700549 34320554 34760500 34930379 34620316 33230315
               32830353 32840481 33100501 33700549