Mesoscale Discussion 0812
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

   Areas affected...portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302052Z - 302245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop this afternoon posing a risk of
   large hail and gusty winds. Additional thunderstorms will move into
   the area later this afternoon into the evening, posing an additional
   threat of wind and hail.

   DISCUSSION...A hybrid stationary front/outflow boundary currently
   stretches from southeast Colorado, into the far western Oklahoma
   Panhandle, across the far northern Texas Panhandle, and into
   west/southwest Oklahoma this afternoon. To the north of this
   boundary, rain-cooled air and increased cloud cover have left
   temperatures in the 50s and 60s F. To the south of this boundary,
   pockets of heating have occurred through breaks in the cloud cover
   resulting in temperatures warming into the 70s F. 

   Visible satellite imagery this afternoon have shown a slowly
   increasing trend in the vertical development of the cumulus field
   along this boundary. Recent imagery suggests more robust cumulus
   development across far northwest Texas Panhandle and this area shows
   the most promise of convective initiation in the near term.
   Mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, effective-layer
   shear 35-40 knots, and mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km would
   support a large hail and gusty wind threat. A tornado or two may be
   possible with any thunderstorm that interacts with the
   aforementioned stationary front/outflow boundary.

   Later this afternoon and evening, convection will move into this
   region from the northwest as thunderstorms move along the
   aforementioned boundary into northern Texas and western Oklahoma
   Panhandles. Additional thunderstorms should approach the area from
   the west out of eastern New Mexico. Large hail and damaging
   thunderstorm winds will be the primary severe threat with this round
   of storms, although a tornado or two will be possible with any
   cellular convection or convection that interacts with the boundary.

   A watch will likely be needed across parts of this area later this
   afternoon into the evening, although some uncertainty in the timing
   remains. The area will continued to be monitored through the
   afternoon/evening.

   ..Marsh/Goss.. 05/30/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34430295 36970295 36920008 34440004 34430295