Mesoscale Discussion 0798
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau into south-central
   TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 290634Z - 290900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe/damaging wind gusts may continue with a cluster of
   storms. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of storms will probably continue
   southeastward early this morning along the MLCAPE gradient present
   across the Edwards Plateau. Although some convective inhibition is
   present across this region, persistent 30-35 kt low-level
   southeasterly winds indicated on the KDFX VWP will maintain a fetch
   of moist boundary-layer air ahead of these storms. KE41 in west TX
   recently gusted to 51 kt as the cluster moved through, and enhanced
   outbound velocities have been observed from the KMAF radar. Strong
   deep-layer shear will likely support continued organization with
   this cluster in the short term, and the presence of steep mid-level
   lapse rates observed on the 00Z DRT sounding are contributing to
   substantial MUCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) per latest mesoanalysis
   estimates. Although it remains unclear how long the cluster will
   persist since some MLCIN is present, a threat for at least isolated
   severe/damaging winds will probably continue for a few hours early
   this morning. A somewhat greater severe threat should remain
   confined along and south of an outflow boundary from earlier
   convection that is present across this region.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 05/29/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30780170 31050134 31650043 30909970 29379925 29059886
               28539876 28079932 28020007 28380040 29040074 29380110
               29680144 29770172 30640207 30780170