ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280733 
SPC MCD 280733 
TXZ000-280930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Areas affected...Portions of north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 280733Z - 280930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and hail may continue to occur for a couple
more hours with a long lived supercell early this morning.

DISCUSSION...A long lived supercell continues to move generally
eastward across part of north TX early this morning. Outflow from
earlier storms has surged well south of this storm. But, MUCAPE
around 1500-2000 J/kg is still present to the north of this boundary
and ahead of the supercell. Recent VWPs from the KFWS radar show a
veering and strengthening wind profile with height through mid
levels, and 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear will be sufficient to
support continued storm organization in the short term. The TDFW
radar shows very strong inbound velocities, and there is some
potential for these wind to reach the surface and cause damage as
the storm approaches Denton TX and locations to the east in the next
1-2 hours. Isolated large hail may also occur. Given that there is
only one supercell ongoing at the moment, the overall severe threat
is expected to remain too isolated to justify watch issuance.

..Gleason/Grams.. 05/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   33249771 33509741 33439654 33269574 32969580 32839605
            32949687 33089759 33249771 

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