ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250441 
SPC MCD 250441 
KSZ000-COZ000-250615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Areas affected...west through northwest KS through far eastern CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250441Z - 250615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms developing over western KS and far eastern CO may
become capable of producing a few instances of large hail. At this
time, a WW issuance will probably not be needed, but trends will
continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...An isolated storm has formed over western KS in Greeley
county, and additional storms will likely develop in association
with augmented isentropic ascent resulting from a strengthening
southerly low-level jet interacting with a stalled front. The
atmosphere in this region remains moderately unstable with 1500-2000
J/kg MUCAPE, 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt effective
bulk shear. This environment might support a few updrafts capable of
producing isolated large hail next few hours.

..Dial/Edwards.. 05/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   38440128 38390211 38960247 39520236 39600160 39170113
            38440128 

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